1 begin the lesson by asking students to define probability (the likelihood or chance that a given event will occur) probability is usually expressed as a ratio of the number of likely outcomes compared with the total number of outcomes possible ask students if they can give an example of. Iv straight-line returns vs probability analysis most financial plans rely upon a straight-line return that represents a flat, average annual rate of return. Deterministic vs probabilistic forecasting deterministic weather forecasts determinism: every event is the inevitable result of antecedent causes. Read chapter 4 risk identification and analysis: probability theory tells us that we can compute the moments of the probability distribution of the total project cost by summing the moments of the uncertainties in all the individual cost accounts.
Probabilistic analysis tutorial 8-1probabilistic analysis this tutorial will familiarize the user with the basic probabilistic. Risk analysis and risk management evaluating and managing risks risk is made up of two parts: the probability of something going wrong, and the negative consequences if it does risk can be hard to spot, however, let alone prepare for and manage. Analytic method for probabilistic cost and schedule risk analysis final report 5 april 2013 prepared for: national aeronautics and space administration (nasa. What is risk analysis all about deterministic risk analysis, stochastic risk analysis, and monte carlo simulation. Risk analysis techniques 1 probability analysis probability analysis overcomes the limitations of sensitivity analysis by specifying a probability distribution for each variable. Joint probability analysis of hurricane flood hazards joint probability size publication date joint probability analysis of hurricane flood hazards 039m: joint probability analysis of hurricane flood hazards 011m: resource type.
Probability is concerned with the mathematical analysis of random phenomena it is younger than most other areas of mathematics, as it originated with the study of games of chance by pascal and fermat (1654) since then it has become indispensable for dealing with randomness in almost all branches. Risk analysis matrix risk rank risk statement risk may occur in risk probability schedule cost risk impact probability and impacts pulls numbers from the impact and probability matrix, then concatenates the number and word to use in the matrix. Students select analysis and probability i in the fall semester, and then pick a specialization in the spring either analysis ii or probability ii. Introduction to applied statistics: lecture notes chapter 1 - introduction to statistics definitions chapter 3 - probability definitions introduction to probability analysis of variance definitions.
This section provides a full set of video lectures from the course.
- Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability although there are several different probability interpretations probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of data.
- Numerical methods and data analysis philosophers divide data into at least two different categories 7-probability theory and statistics consider the probability of selecting a diamond card from a deck of 52 playing cards.
- Probability calculator computes probability of events, unions, intersections, and conditional probability displays the answer and shows computations.
Probability and statistics index graphs index what is data what is data discrete and continuous data. The binomial distribution model is an important probability model that is used when there are two possible outcomes (hence binomial) in a situation in which there were more than two distinct outcomes, a multinomial probability model might be appropriate, but here we focus on the situation in. Using probability - impact matrix in analysis and risk assessment projects 78 special issue december 2013 specific to the assessment of event risk is a two-dimensional approach. Pedigree analysis: carrier probabilities in these problems you examine family pedigrees displaying a rare disease trait and calculate the probability that. Slide now includes extensive probabilistic analysis capabilities for the statistical analysis of slope stability using monte carlo or latin hypercube simulation techniques. Risk analysis builds on the risk information generated in the identification step, converting it into decision-making information in the analyzing step, three more elements are added to the risk's entry on the master risks list: the risk's probability, impact, and exposure.